So this is my favourite moment in the history of Magic, ever. Ever.
Here’s the backstory:
Patrick Chapin and Gabriel Nassif are in the semi-finals of the 2007 World Championship. It’s best-of-5, so first person to win 3 games wins. Chapin is on 2, Nassif is on 1.
Chapin has a card called “Ignite Memories” in his deck. This causes his opponent to reveal a card at random from their hand, then take damage equal to its casting cost. Then, copy Ignite Memories for each spell that was cast earlier in the turn.
Chapin builds up to 4 spells cast, then drops Ignite Memories, making 5 copies of Ignite Memories. Nassif is on 9 life, and has 3 cards in hand. One that costs 5- his own Ignite Memories, for irony points- one that costs 2, and one that costs 1.
If you’ve done some simple math here, Nassif is dead if he ever hits Ignite Memories, or hits 4 instances of his spell that costs 2.
Proceed to revealing spells.
First roll of the dice… Nassif hits Grapeshot, the spell that costs 2. He drops to 7 life. Second roll… Grapeshot. 5 life. Third roll… Grapeshot. 3 life. He now needs to hit Rite of Flame twice in a row, the spell that costs 1, or he’s dead.
Fourth card… Rite of Flame. Two life. Anything but Rite and he’s dead.
Fifth card… RITE OF FLAME. He survives, on one life.
So, running the numbers here, Nassif had an 86% chance to hit Ignite Memories at least once in the 5 rolls. He not only survived the 14% chance, he also proceeded to survive the 4 Grapeshot, 1 Rite combination which would also kill him, but only just. It’s something along the lines of 4.45% chance to survive, and he hits it.
Chapin passes the turn, out of spells to cast.
Nassif proceeds to build up his counter of spells cast, before dropping his own Ignite Memories with 5 copies.
Chapin procceds to reveal his hand…
Dragonstorm, which costs 9, and two spells I can’t identify that cost 8.
That’s lethal no matter what he hits, with Chapin being on 17 life.